Full analytical dashboard · Updated May 9, 2026

BC Conservative
Leadership Race 2026

By @TheRemanded  ·  Hobby Independent views ☕ Support this research · Buy me a coffee
Last updated: May 9, 2026  ·  Reflects sourced information available as of that date  ·  Membership confirmed 42,084 · Google Trends updated (Apr 23) · May 2: Membership geography · 93-riding table · Ad Library signal analysis · IRV + audience charts · stale date sweep · May 3: John Duncan endorsement · Elections BC enforcement record · provision/date corrections · May 9: Global News debate · Elliott/Falcon relationship confirmed · YouTube chat analysis · May 9: verification deadline corrected to May 20
Candidates Background reading Key dates How to vote Analytical assessment Signal scorecard Endorsements Weight matrix Position tracker Policy gaps Risk matrix Digital signals Meta ad spendMembership geographyGlobal News Debate2024 BC Election Violations Poll snapshot (Mar 22) IRV simulation (Mar 22) Debates FAQ
Party membership
42,084
Party announced ~42,000 · Apr 21, 2026 · Riding data: 42,084 final total
Membership cutoff
Closed
April 18, 5:00 PM PT · Voting universe locked · 42,000 confirmed April 21, 2026
MLA endorsers — leaders
10 · 8
Findlay (10 total: 8 Conservative + Kealy + Armstrong) · Milobar (8 Conservative)
Members polled (Mar 22)
~6%
2,578 of ~42,084 · ~94% unpolled or joined after survey
Five remaining candidates verified Apr 23, 2026
Background and campaign sites · all facts sourced from official campaign websites, Elections BC records, and published electoral records · no campaign slogans or marketing language reproduced
Milobar
Peter Milobar
MLA, Kamloops Centre (2017–present). Former Mayor of Kamloops (2008–2017). Former Kamloops City Councillor (2002–2008). Served as BC United Finance Critic and Health Critic. Approximately 24 years in elected office across municipal and provincial levels.
petermilobar.ca ↗
Elliott
Caroline Elliott
Former Vice-President, BC United Party (2022–2024). Political commentator and strategist. No prior elected office. BC United is the successor party to the BC Liberal Party. Sister-in-law of former BC Liberal/United leader Kevin Falcon. Source: The Tyee, April 2026. Entered the leadership race January 2026.
winforbc.ca ↗
Black
Iain Black
Former BC Liberal MLA, Port Moody-Westwood and Port Moody-Coquitlam (2005–2011). Held three cabinet portfolios under Premier Gordon Campbell. President and CEO, Vancouver Board of Trade (2011–2024). No elected office since 2011.
iainblack.ca ↗
Findlay
Kerry-Lynne Findlay
Former federal MP, South Surrey–White Rock (2011–2015 · 2019–2025). Served as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Justice (2013–2015) and Shadow Minister of Public Safety (2020–2021). Called to the BC Bar. Approximately 10 years in elected federal office.
findlay4bc.ca ↗
Fulmer
Yuri Fulmer
Entrepreneur. Chancellor, Capilano University (2020–present). Co-founder and CEO, Fulmer & Company. No prior elected office. Ran unsuccessfully in the 2024 BC provincial election. Born in Australia; Canadian citizen.
teamyurifulmer.ca ↗
Video & interview archive · YouTube links · campaign announcements excluded · durations from YouTube metadata · verified Apr 23, 2026
Long-format interviews and media appearances only. Campaign announcements and news clips under 10 minutes excluded unless noted. All links open YouTube unless otherwise stated. Durations sourced from YouTube metadata as of April 23, 2026.
All candidates
Juno News Leadership Debate · Apr 9, 2026 · 1 hr 28 min · Elliott & Milobar absent ↗
Milobar
Elliott
Black
Findlay
Fulmer
April 24, 2026 — CSFN Vancouver debate added Apr 26
Canada Strong and Free Network · JW Marriott Parq Vancouver · Moderators: Tristin Hopper (National Post) · Kate Harrison (CSFN Board) · All five candidates attended — the first and only party-sanctioned all-candidates debate of the leadership race · April 24, 2026 · 4:30–6:00 PM PT. Full debate uploaded to CSFN YouTube channel April 25, 2026.
Full CSFN debate · 1 hr 25 min · 23,500+ views · Canada Strong and Free Network ↗
Selected clips — third-party accounts
Elliott vs Fulmer — TFW / A&W businesses · 63s
@TrendPolCa · Apr 25, 2026 ↗ Elliott vs Fulmer — DEI / land acknowledgements on Fulmer business site · 1 min 15 sec
@junonewscom · Apr 25, 2026 ↗ New Westminster Times — debate commentary · DRIPA / values crossfire · 10+ min
@NewWestTimes · Apr 25, 2026 ↗
Clips sourced from third-party accounts. Content descriptions reflect what the clip shows — no editorial assessment of claims made. Full debate available at the link above. Candidate-posted clips appear in the scrutiny section below.
Candidate scrutiny posts added Apr 26
Direct X post links to candidate-posted scrutiny content. Organised by candidate making the claim. Descriptions reflect what the post or clip contains — no editorial assessment of accuracy. No polished attack ads exist in this race. All content is candidate-posted X clips or short videos, the majority derived from the April 24 CSFN debate. Milobar and Black posted zero direct attacks or scrutiny content naming other candidates across the full race period.
Fulmer → Elliott
Elliott → Fulmer
Elliott → Findlay
Findlay — zero direct attack posts naming other candidates. Post-debate content is policy-focused and positive. One debate clip posted: safe supply / recovery position from CSFN stage · 1 min 20 sec · Apr 26, 2026 ↗
Milobar — zero direct attack posts or clips naming other candidates across the full race period. Post-debate: debate thank-you post · Apr 25, 2026 ↗
Black — zero direct attack posts or clips naming other candidates across the full race period. Post-debate: experience and readiness post · Apr 26, 2026 ↗
All links are direct X posts or YouTube videos. Descriptions reflect what each post or clip contains — no editorial assessment of claims made. Search conducted via X advanced search January 1 – April 26, 2026 using candidate handles and opponent name keywords. No polished paid attack ads located on any platform. Compiled April 26, 2026.
All links verified and durations sourced from YouTube metadata as of April 23, 2026. Long-format interviews only — campaign announcements excluded. Dallas Brodie / New Westminster Times Apr 14 covers the Fulmer–OneBC accord. Rebel News entries for Elliott cover the same Apr 9–10 event from two separate uploads. Marc Nixon channel: youtube.com/@MarcNixonOfficial/videos. This list reflects available public video as of the compilation date.
Sources: Elections Canada candidate records · BC Legislature official records · Capilano University · Vancouver Board of Trade · campaign websites verified Apr 19, 2026 · all biographical facts independently confirmed from named primary sources · no campaign slogans or marketing language reproduced in this section
Background reading
How we got here · @TheRemanded · April 13, 2026
Twenty Months — The full arc of this race

Published April 13, 2026. Covers the Elections BC determination confirming BC United commissioned the FireJohnRustad.ca operation, the Surrey-Guildford 22-vote margin that secured the NDP's one-seat majority, the fall of John Rustad, the departure of five Conservative MLAs prior to the caucus revolt, the snap election question, the DRIPA confidence motion and its deferral, the April 8 debate and the events surrounding it, the BC United connection to the Milobar campaign, the campaign staff resignations, and the full context of a leadership race launched under extraordinary circumstances. All claims are sourced; unverified claims are identified as such in the original piece.

📄 Read on Substack 𝕏 View on X 📈 Google Trends analysis — Substack 📈 Google Trends analysis — X
Source references for Twenty Months compiled April 13, 2026. Elections BC determination letter April 8, 2026 · CBC News · Canadian Press · Globe and Mail · Business in Vancouver · Castanet · Energeticcity.ca · Times Colonist · Angus Reid Institute · BC Legislature parliamentary calendar · Public X posts verified by Grok April 13, 2026.
Key dates
Apr 18
Membership + final fee cutoff.

Closed April 18 at 5:00 PM PT. Voting universe locked. Membership total confirmed: 42,084 (announced by party April 21, 2026).

Apr 24
Completed · CSFN Vancouver debate — April 24, 2026

4:30–6:00 PM PT · JW Marriott Parq Vancouver · Canada Strong and Free Network · All five candidates · Moderators: Tristin Hopper (National Post) · Kate Harrison (CSFN Board) · Event details ↗

May 9
Ranked-choice ballots distributed · Global News leadership debate 4:30–6:00 PM PDT.

Voting begins. Moderator: Ben O'Hara-Byrne (Global BC). All five candidates. Ballots distributed same day as final televised debate. Identity verification deadline is May 20 — members have until May 20 to verify and access their ballot.

May 20
Voter identity verification deadline.

Members must register and verify their identity through the electronic voting system by May 20, 2026 to receive their voting credentials and access their ballot. Ballots were distributed from May 9 — verification can be completed up to this date. corrected May 9

May 30
New leader announced at convention.

Next BC Premier if Conservatives win the next provincial election.

How to vote — membership and ballot information sourced: Rules s.6.1 · s.7.1 · s.7.2 · s.7.8 · s.7.9 · App. A s.3.2
For confirmed BC Conservative Party members · all facts sourced from official Rules and Procedures adopted January 14, 2026 · revised February 27, 2026
① Eligibility
To vote you must have been an active member by April 18, 2026 at 5:00 PM PT. The membership cutoff has now closed.

An active member is a person who has purchased a membership but may not yet have reached 21 days of standing. A member becomes a member in good standing 21 days after payment.

Members who purchased on or before April 18 and who reach good standing by May 9 will receive a ballot. Membership purchased during the grace period of expiry must have been renewed before the cutoff.
Source: Rules s.7.2 · Appendix A s.1.1(b)
② Receiving your ballot
Ballots will be sent to members in good standing no later than May 9, 2026.

The voting system requires eligible members to register and verify their identity by May 20, 2026 to receive voting credentials. corrected May 9 Government-issued identification must match the member information provided to the party.

Members must not allow another person to use their voting credentials or vote in their place.
Source: Rules s.7.2 · s.7.8 · s.7.9 · Appendix A s.3.2 · s.3.4
③ Voting window and result
Voting takes place through a secure electronic system between May 9 and May 30, 2026 at such times as the LEOC sets.

The vote is conducted on a one member, one vote preferential secret ballot system. Members may rank candidates in order of preference.

The new leader will be announced at the Leadership Convention on May 30, 2026.
Source: Rules s.6.1 · s.7.1 · s.7.6 · s.7.8
Full voting rules and procedures: Official Rules and Procedures — Conservative Party of BC (PDF) ↗ · Adopted January 14, 2026 · Revised February 27, 2026
Analytical assessment — Race genuinely open · Milobar leads on available polling
Race context since the poll closed. The Mainstreet poll closed March 22. In the weeks between that date and April 17, the following sourced events occurred. Elections BC issued a formal determination on April 8 confirming BC United commissioned the FireJohnRustad.ca operation targeting former leader John Rustad; Mark Werner was identified by role as organizer on BC United's behalf. Werner had been serving as Milobar's campaign manager and stepped back April 12. Rustad stated publicly the operation may have suppressed voter turnout and cost Conservatives the 2024 election. Surrey-Guildford, the riding that secured the NDP's one-seat majority, was decided by 22 votes. Three Elliott riding captains resigned publicly April 9-13. Findlay's campaign manager resigned March 25. Party membership grew from approximately 9,000 at poll date to a confirmed 42,000 as of April 21, 2026. Elliott and Milobar were both absent from the April 8 Juno News debate. All five remaining candidates addressed the snap election question publicly the week of April 8-13. The DRIPA bill had been designated a confidence vote, raising the prospect that a government defeat could force a provincial election before the Conservative leadership concluded on May 30. The DRIPA (Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act) confidence motion was confirmed then deferred, with Minister Farnworth stating April 13 it would not proceed that week and was no longer a confidence vote. Armstrong endorsed Findlay on April 16. Membership cutoff closed April 18 at 5:00 PM PT. Final membership total confirmed at 42,000 as of April 21, 2026.

Institutional and digital signals. On endorsement metrics as of April 27, Milobar holds the highest raw endorsement volume in the race at 111.0 across 18 endorsers (including Caputo, fed. MP, added Apr 27), anchored by 8 sitting Conservative MLAs and 8 former BC Liberal provincial MLAs and cabinet ministers. Black added Tony Luck (MLA, Fraser-Nicola) on April 18, bringing his total to 82.5 across 13 endorsers and his sitting MLA count to 4. Findlay added Sharon Hartwell (MLA, Bulkley Valley-Stikine · Conservative caucus) on April 27 and Anna Kindy (MLA, North Island) on April 23, bringing her total to 136.5 across 18 endorsers — the highest total score and highest blended quality score in the race at 7.58. Findlay leads the field on both MLA count (10: 8 Conservative + Kealy + Armstrong) and blended endorsement quality. May 3: Hon. John Duncan P.C., M.P. (former cabinet minister, Vancouver Island North, 20+ years) endorsed Findlay — 16 total endorsers, 123.5 weighted points, 7.72/10 blended. Milobar added Frank Caputo (federal MP, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo) on April 27, bringing his total to 111.0 across 18 endorsers. Source: @findlay4bc · April 27, 2026. Elliott holds 3 sitting Conservative MLA endorsements alongside former premiers Campbell (BC, 2001-2011) and Kenney (Alberta, 2019-2022), with a blended endorsement quality score of 5.94 across 8 endorsers. In the @TheRemanded Google Trends analysis (Mar 23–Apr 23, 2026, BC geography, 8 CSV exports averaged), Elliott recorded the highest BC public search interest at a peak index of 75 (Mar 29) and led consistently across the period. Fulmer recorded a peak of 46 on April 9 (debate day). Milobar recorded a peak of 30 on April 9 with a secondary spike of 24 on April 12 (Werner resignation coverage). Google Trends measures general public web search interest and does not measure BC Conservative party members specifically.

The only available member poll (Mainstreet, Mar 19-22, commissioned by the Milobar campaign, n=2,578) captured approximately 6% of the confirmed 42,000-member voting universe. Within that sample, Milobar holds a narrow projected IRV advantage (50.5% vs 49.5%) on the strength of the highest second-choice flows at 9.8% and the leading electability score at 30.6% vs 26.0%. Elliott leads first-choice at 21.2% vs Milobar's 20.8%. The IRV margin sits within polling error.

Findlay records 8.1% first-choice in the poll. Her endorsement metrics as of May 3 are 10 total MLA endorsers (8 Conservative + Kealy + Armstrong) + John Duncan P.C., M.P. (fed. cabinet, May 3), 15 total endorsers, the highest blended endorsement quality score at 7.72, and a 5/5 policy consistency rating in the scorecard, tied with Fulmer.

Black records 8.4% first-choice and 9.1% second-choice in the poll. His April 8 debate performance was assessed the strongest of the three attending candidates by multiple independent outlets. In the Mainstreet IRV simulation, a path to a result requires first-ballot survival and transfer accumulation. The 9.1% second-choice figure is the available data point for evaluating that scenario.

Fulmer records 5.4% first-choice. The Mainstreet IRV simulation projects his early elimination with his transfer flows unmodelled. Where his supporters place second and third choices is not captured in available data.

The preferences of approximately 39,422 members beyond the poll sample are unsampled across all five candidates. The April 24 CSFN debate (party-sanctioned, all five candidates) is the last named variable before ballots mail May 9. Rustad has not declared a public endorsement. Membership cutoff closed April 18. Ballots distributed from May 9 · verification deadline May 20.
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Polling
Mainstreet Research member poll: Mar 19–22, 2026 · n=2,578 (2,213 confirmed current members + 365 intending to join before Apr 18 cutoff) · MoE ±1.93% · commissioned by Milobar campaign (sponsor bias of ~1–2 pts acknowledged) · weighted by riding-point system (9,300 pts across 93 ridings) · source of all first-choice, second-choice, IRV and electability figures
Mainstreet Research provincial voter poll: Mar 11–13, 2026 · n=1,054 general BC voters · commissioner not specified in available coverage · source of seat projection modeling only · reported by Castanet and Radio NL Mar 16, 2026 · these are modeled projections, not direct poll responses
Angus Reid BC Spotlight: survey Mar 11–17, 2026 · published Apr 1, 2026 · n=499 BC adults · BC NDP and BC Conservatives statistically tied in vote intention under interim leadership
Polymarket: Individual binary "Will X win?" markets — prices as observed Apr 21, 2026 (fluctuate constantly). Elliott ~43% · Milobar ~30% · Fulmer ~16% · Black ~7% · Findlay not directly observed. These are separate binary markets, not a unified multi-candidate market — implied probabilities do not sum to 100% and cannot be compared as shares of a single pool. Total observed market volume ~$42k across all candidates. Treat as directional signal only — thin volume means individual trades move prices materially. Source: Polymarket.com · polymarket.com/predictions/british-columbia
Party membership: Conservative Party of BC confirmed 42,000 members as of Apr 21, 2026. At time of poll (Mar 19–22) membership stood at approximately 9,000. Mainstreet confirmed-member sample of 2,213 represented ~25% of that earlier membership base but represents approximately ~6% of the confirmed 42,000-member voting universe. Membership cutoff closed April 18, 5:00 PM PT.

Endorsement verification
Direct X account audit of all five candidates (Apr 16, 2026 ~02:00 UTC) · Tara Armstrong endorsement of Findlay confirmed Apr 16, 2026 (after initial audit) · Wikipedia (2026 Conservative Party of BC leadership election) · petermilobar.ca · CBC News · Castanet · Vancouver Sun · The Tyee · National Observer · Western Standard · Radio NL · Indo-Canadian Voice · Coast Mountain News

Debate coverage
Juno News · National Observer · Rebel News · CBC News

Compiled April 17, 2026. Updated April 26, 2026. Endorsement metrics updated April 27, 2026. Google Trends search interest data sourced from @TheRemanded analysis (Mar 23–Apr 23, 2026) — see Google Trends section. All other social engagement signals are observational.
Signal scorecard 15 metrics · rebuilt Apr 16 · updated May 3 · debate Apr 24 completed
Same 15 metrics applied equally to all five candidates · 5 dots = strongest · includes genuine weaknesses · sourced or labeled analytical
Dot scale: 5 dots = strongest signal · 3 dots = moderate · 1 dot = weakest · half-dot = partial signal · 0 dots = absent or no record. Four groups: (1) Polling data — directly sourced from named polls with dates · (2) Institutional — verified records · (3) Campaign signals — sourced with notes, social/engagement labeled observational · (4) Analytical — this document's own assessment, clearly labeled, sourced where possible
← Scroll to view full table →
Metric Milobar Elliott Black Findlay Fulmer
① Polling data — Mainstreet member poll Mar 19–22, 2026 · n=2,578 · commissioned by Milobar campaign · Angus Reid Mar 11–17, 2026 · n=499
First-choice standingMember poll · Mar 19–22
20.8%
21.2% · leads
8.4%
8.1%
5.4%
Electability — "best to beat NDP"Member poll · Mar 19–22
30.6% · #1
26.0% · #2
not top-2 measured
not top-2 measured
not top-2 measured
Second-choice flowsMember poll · Mar 19–22
9.8% · #1
7.8% · #3
9.1% · #2
6.0% · #4
below threshold
Member likabilityAngus Reid · Mar 11–17 · past BC Con voters · with description
58%
59% · leads
not measured at significance · n=499 insufficient sub-group
54%
not measured at significance · n=499 insufficient sub-group
② Institutional — verified records · X audit Apr 16, 2026 · published sources
Sitting MLA endorsementsX audit Apr 16 · updated Apr 27 post-Kindy/Hartwell
8 MLAs
3 MLAs
4 MLAs ↑
10 MLAs — field leader (8 Con + Kealy ind. + Armstrong ind.) · Kindy Apr 23 · Hartwell Apr 27
2 MLAs
Governing & political experienceYears in elected office · executive roles
~24 yrs · councillor 6 · mayor 9 · MLA 9
0 yrs elected office
~6 yrs · MLA + cabinet 2005–11
~10 yrs · MP + fed. cabinet
0 yrs elected office
③ Campaign signals — sourced with citations · social/engagement labeled observational
April 8 debate performanceJuno News · National Observer · Rebel News · Apr 8–10, 2026
DID NOT ATTEND
DID NOT ATTEND
best performer · crowd winner
strong · directly addressed both absences from stage
solid · straight-talk approach
Platform depth & policy specificitysourced from respective campaign platforms
general principles · no structured platform document found · petermilobar.ca
18-page PDF · 8 policy areas · winforbc.ca
20 policy releases · no single document · iainblack.ca/news
4 structured policy documents + extensive interview record · findlay4bc.ca
77+ numbered commitments · 9 areas · teamyurifulmer.ca
Social & digital engagementGoogle Trends BC 5-candidate · peak index · Mar 16–Apr 14, 2026 · @TheRemanded analysis
Peak 30 · Apr 9 (debate day) · Apr 12 secondary spike 24 (Werner coverage)
Peak 75 · Mar 29 · leads consistently throughout period
Peak 20 · Apr 9 · debate day
Peak 21 · Apr 9 · debate day
Peak 46 · Apr 9 · debate day drove peak
Campaign stabilitysourced staff record · Globe & Mail · multiple outlets · Apr 2026
mgr Werner stepped back Apr 12 · new mgr Conaster · Globe & Mail
multiple riding captains resigned Apr 9–15 · multiple reports
no reported staff changes or organizational issues found
mgr Denhoff resigned Mar 25 · endorsed another candidate · multiple reports
no reported staff changes or organizational issues found
Meta ad spend — political categoryMeta Ad Library · Jan 14–Apr 13, 2026 · declared spend only
CA$29,427 · 102 ads
CA$194,143 · 428 ads · 8.8× field average
CA$16,747 · 56 ads
CA$12,700 · 88 ads
CA$29,862 · 137 ads
④ Analytical — this document's own assessment · sourced where possible from position tracker · clearly labeled as analytical judgment
Policy consistencysourced from position tracker · documented record vs 2026 position
clear SOGI shift 2024→2026 · claims unchanged · Castanet Apr 1, 2026
documented SOGI position reversal Jan 16→Mar 27, 2026 · 10 weeks · BC NDP Caucus + Turner Files
no prior record 2011–2024 · 2021 vaccine posts vs 2026 "never supported mandates" · reader assessment
most consistent documented record across all issues 2022–2026
consistent from campaign entry · no prior contradicting record found
Party identity fitanalytical · based on political background vs membership base
BC United MLA · condemned Freedom Convoy · central tension in race
BC United VP 2022–24 · SOGI position reversed · Falcon/BC United connection documented
BC Liberal MLA/cabinet 2005–11 · out of politics 13 yrs · no BC United association
federal CPC throughout · no BC Liberal/United history · social-con record consistent
no BC Liberal/United background · freedom-conservative · anti-establishment
Path to IRV winanalytical · based on IRV simulation + polling structure
IRV sim winner 50.5% · leads 2nd choice · strongest "beats NDP" score
leads 1st choice 21.2% · needs first-ballot surge before transfers
must outperform Milobar on 1st ballot from 8.4% · not finalist in IRV simulation
8.1% requires undecided shift and transfer accumulation · not finalist in IRV simulation
5.4% base · IRV simulation projects early elimination · not modelled to reach final ballot
Undecided reachanalytical · capacity to move 31.6% undecided bloc before Apr 18
electability framing matches #1 voter priority · coalition-building approach
grassroots mobilization · leads 1st choice · high engagement
cross-faction 2nd choice appeal · policy depth · debate performance
strong base · ideologically narrower positioning limits undecided ceiling
debate + policy depth provide reach · limited by 5.4% first-choice base
Polling data sourced: Mainstreet Research member poll Mar 19–22, 2026 (n=2,578, commissioned by Milobar campaign, MoE ±1.93%) · Angus Reid BC Spotlight Mar 11–17, 2026 (n=499 BC adults, published Apr 1, 2026) · All polling figures quoted directly from published toplines. Angus Reid sub-group analysis of Black and Fulmer not available at n=499.
Experience years are approximate based on published electoral records. Governing experience scoring reflects elected public office and formal executive roles only — not advisory, commentary, or party staff roles.
Groups 3 and 4 include observational and analytical assessments. These are labeled throughout and represent one analytical framework. Readers apply their own weighting.
@TheRemanded · Hobby Independent · BC Conservative Leadership Race 2026
Sitting MLA endorsements verified Apr 18 final
Conservative caucus members + independent MLAs who have endorsed · † = independent MLA, not Conservative caucus · ‡ = OneBC MLA · * = dropped leadership candidate, remains sitting Conservative MLA
8
Milobar
10
Findlay ↑
4
Black ↑
3
Elliott
2
Fulmer
Full sitting MLA breakdown — all confirmed
MILOBAR (8)
Brennan DayGavin DewKiel GiddensScott McInnisWard StamerLinda HepnerIan PatonPete DavisFrank Caputo MP Apr 27
FINDLAY (8) +Maahs Apr 15 · +Armstrong Apr 16
Macklin McCallLawrence MokDavid WilliamsSheldon Clare*Steve Kooner*Jordan Kealy†Heather MaahsTara Armstrong†Anna Kindy Apr 23Sharon Hartwell Apr 27
BLACK (3)
Korky NeufeldTeresa WatMisty Van PoptaTony Luck Apr 18
ELLIOTT (3)
Kristina LoewenBryan TepperHarman Bhangu*
FULMER (2)
Bruce Banman*Dallas Brodie‡
* withdrew from leadership race · remains a sitting Conservative MLA
† Jordan Kealy: independent MLA (left Conservative caucus March 2025) · not a Conservative caucus member · scored at 7.5 in weight matrix
† Tara Armstrong: independent MLA (left Conservative caucus March 2025 · OneBC · independent Dec 2025) · not a Conservative caucus member · scored at 7.5 in weight matrix
‡ Dallas Brodie: OneBC MLA (expelled Conservative caucus March 2025) · not a Conservative caucus member · scored at 8.0 (structural accord) in weight matrix
Full endorsement picture
Former politicians · federal names · prominent figures · excludes sitting MLAs (listed in section above)
PM
Peter Milobar
Deep former BC Liberal provincial bench
FORMER PROVINCIAL MLAs / CABINET
Dan DaviesBill BennettJackie TegartDoug ClovechokGreg KylloNorm LetnickJoan IsaacsScott Hamilton
OTHER
Nancy Greene Raine (retired Senator)
CE
Caroline Elliott
Former BC United VP (2022–2024)
FORMER PREMIERS
Gordon Campbell (BC Premier 2001–2011)Jason Kenney (AB Premier 2019–2022)
DROPPED NON-MLA CANDIDATES + PUBLIC FIGURES
Darrell Jones (former Pattison Food Group president)Brett Wilson (entrepreneur)
Campaign operations (not endorsers): Kory Teneycke (campaign manager · Ford CM), Jeff Ballingall (Canada Proud), Nick Kouvalis (pollster/strategist). Paid campaign operatives are not listed as endorsers under this document's standard.
Note: Campbell + Kenney bring national profile. How members align these names with the BC Liberal/BC United legacy may influence transfer vote behaviour.
IB
Iain Black
Strongest federal bench · out of politics 2011–2024
FEDERAL POLITICIANS
James Moore (former fed. cabinet min. · endorsed Apr 16)Ed Fast (former fed. Trade Minister)Scott Anderson (former interim BC Con leader · MP)Dianne Watts (former Surrey mayor · former MP)Gerry St. Germain (former Senator)
FORMER PROVINCIAL
Mike de Jong (former senior BC Liberal cabinet minister)
KF
Kerry-Lynne Findlay
8 sitting / independent MLAs · strong federal Conservative bench
FEDERAL POLITICIANS
Peter MacKay (former fed. Con leader + cabinet minister)Leslyn Lewis (MP, Haldimand-Norfolk)
INDEPENDENT MLAs +Armstrong Apr 16
Tara Armstrong (Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream · independent · fmr Conservative)
MUNICIPAL + CROSS-PARTY
David Wilks (Mayor of Sparwood · former MP)Stuart Parker (former BC Green Party leader)Hon. Deborah Grey PC (first Reform MP · fmr. Leader of Opposition · Mar 17)
Hon. John Duncan P.C., M.P. (former fed. cabinet minister · Vancouver Island North · 20+ yrs · May 3) new Mar 17
YF
Yuri Fulmer
"Unite the right" coalition · OneBC structural accord
FEDERAL POLITICIANS
Rob Morrison (MP, Columbia-Kootenay-Southern Rockies)
FORMER PROVINCIAL MLAs
Tom Shypitka (former Kootenay East MLA)Ralph Sultan (former West Vancouver-Capilano MLA + cabinet minister)
FORMER PARTY LEADER + DROPPED CANDIDATE + ELECTED COUNCILLOR
Trevor Bolin (former BC Conservative Party leader)Wesly Graham (Cranbrook City Councillor · BC Con VP)Warren Hamm (dropped leadership candidate)
Non-endorsing sitting MLAs
13 confirmed as of Apr 27, 2026 · no public endorsement statement located for any candidate · Conservative caucus stands at 38 · one MLA unaccounted for in available records · source: Conservative Party of BC · Wikipedia · X account audit
These 13 sitting MLAs have made no public endorsement for any of the five candidates as of Apr 27, 2026. Kindy (North Island) endorsed Findlay Apr 23. Luck (Fraser-Nicola) endorsed Black Apr 18. Hartwell (Bulkley Valley-Stikine) endorsed Findlay Apr 27. Conservative caucus stands at 38 (Tyee, Mar 2026); 21 MLAs are verified as endorsers across the five campaigns; one MLA is unaccounted for in publicly available records and may belong in this list. Their silence does not indicate a preference — only the absence of a public statement. Caucus roles sourced from Conservative Party of BC announcement (Dec 10, 2025).
Highest profile — leadership significance
John Rustad
Nechako Lakes · Former leader · No public endorsement declared as of May 3, 2026
Trevor Halford
Surrey-White Rock · Interim Leader · No public endorsement declared as of May 3, 2026
Caucus leadership roles
Á'a:líya Warbus
Chilliwack-Cultus Lake · House Leader
Rosalyn Bird
Prince George-Valemount · Caucus Whip
Reann Gasper
Abbotsford-Mission · Deputy Caucus Whip
Lorne Doerkson
Cariboo-Chilcotin · Assistant Deputy Speaker
Remaining non-endorsing MLAs
Lynne Block
West Vancouver-Capilano
Mandeep Dhaliwal
Surrey North
Larry Neufeld
Peace River South
Claire Rattée
Skeena
Jody Toor
Langley-Willowbrook
Donegal Wilson
Boundary-Similkameen
Sources: Conservative Party of BC opposition team announcement (Dec 10, 2025) · Wikipedia (2026 BC Conservative leadership election) · X account audit (Apr 16–17, 2026) · conservativebc.ca
Silence does not imply neutrality or opposition — only absence of a public statement.
Caucus context: 44 Conservative MLAs elected Oct 2024. Six have since departed: Dallas Brodie (expelled Mar 2025 · OneBC), Jordan Kealy (left Mar 2025 · independent · endorsed Findlay), Tara Armstrong (left Mar 2025 · OneBC · independent Dec 2025 · endorsed Findlay Apr 16, 2026), Elenore Sturko (expelled Sep 2025 · independent), Amelia Boultbee (left Oct 2025 · independent), Hon Chan (Richmond Centre · expelled Mar 26, 2026 · criminal charges · source: CBC News). Conservative caucus stands at 38 as of Apr 17, 2026. Kealy and Armstrong are in Findlay's endorsement column as independent MLAs. @TheRemanded · Hobby Independent
Endorsement weight matrix v4 · Apr 18 final
Six-dimension scoring · paid operatives and party staffers excluded · all endorsers verified · dropped-but-sitting MLAs at 7.5
Dimensions weighted: institutional proximity (25%) · voting influence (25%) · independence (15%) · ideological signal (15%) · timing (10%) · recency (10%)
Sitting Conservative MLA8.5
OneBC structural accord (Brodie)8.0
Dropped-but-sitting MLA (Bhangu, Clare, Kooner, Banman)7.5
Former fed. leader + cabinet (MacKay)7.5
Independent MLA endorser (Kealy, Armstrong)7.5
Former MP with crossover (Watts, Wilks)7.0
Interim party leader + MP (Anderson)6.5
Cross-party endorser (Stuart Parker)6.5
Former federal cabinet (Moore, Fast)6.5
Active federal MP (Morrison, Lewis)6.0
Former premier (Campbell, Kenney)Day (former fed. Alliance/CPC min. · May 6) · 6.0 ↑ new5.5
Councillor + party VP (Graham)4.5
Former provincial MLA/cabinet4.0
Former Senator (St. Germain) · retired Senator (Greene Raine)3.5
Dropped non-MLA candidate (Jones, Hamm)3.0
Public figure (Wilson)3.0
Dropped-but-sitting MLAs scored at 7.5 — small independence discount vs. 8.5 for unsolicited endorsement, all other dimensions identical. Paid campaign operatives and party staffers holding no elected office are excluded from this matrix — they are not endorsers under this document's standard. Weights reflect one analytical framework — reasonable people weigh these dimensions differently.
Candidate
Volume — proportional to raw total
Raw total
Blended avg
quality / endorser
Peter Milobar
111.0
6.17 / 10
8× sitting MLA · 8.5 ea. 8× former prov. MLA/cab · 4.0 ea. Greene Raine (retired Senator) · 3.5Caputo (fed. MP · Apr 27) · 7.5 ↑
18 endorsers · Caputo (fed. MP, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo) added Apr 27 · Anderson removed (confirmed Black endorser) · Adams removed (candidate of record, not an endorser under this document's standard) · base total 8×8.5 + 8×4.0 + 3.5 + 7.5 = 111.0
Kerry-Lynne Findlay
136.5 ↑
7.58 / 10 ↑
8× sitting MLA · 8.5 ea. (incl. Kindy Apr 23 · Hartwell Apr 27) Kealy (ind. MLA) · 7.5 Armstrong (ind. MLA · Apr 16) · 7.5 ↑Kindy (cons. MLA · Apr 23) · 8.5 ↑Hartwell (cons. MLA · Apr 27) · 8.5 ↑
Duncan (fed. MP · P.C. · May 3) · 8.0 ↑ new Kibble (sitting MP · May 5) · 6.5 ↑ new Dalton (sitting MP · May 6) · 6.5 ↑ new Clare, Kooner (dropped-sitting MLAs) · 7.5 ea. MacKay (fed. Con leader) · 7.5 Lewis MP · 6.0 Wilks (crossover) · 7.0 Parker (cross-party) · 6.5 Grey (first Reform MP · fmr. Leader of Opposition) · 7.5 ↑
Iain Black
82.5
6.35 / 10 ↑
3× sitting MLA · 8.5 ea. (Neufeld · Wat · Van Popta) Doherty (fed. MP · May 6) · 6.5 ↑ Richmond (former BC min. & Speaker · May 6) · 4.5 ↑ Martin (former Senator · May 9) · 3.5 ↑ Moore, Fast (fed. cabinet) · 6.5 ea. Watts (crossover) · 7.0 Anderson (interim ldr + MP) · 6.5 St. Germain (Senator) · 3.5 de Jong (former prov. cab.) · 4.0 Luck (sitting MLA · Apr 18) · 8.5 ↑
13 endorsers · incl. Doherty MP May 6 · Richmond May 6 · Martin Senator May 9 · Apr 18: Tony Luck (MLA, Fraser-Nicola) added
No documented controversies, ethics issues or legal matters in any 2020–2026 public records.
Caroline Elliott
47.5
5.94 / 10
2× sitting MLA (Loewen, Tepper) · 8.5 ea. Bhangu (dropped-sitting MLA) · 7.5 Campbell, Kenney (former premiers) · 5.5 ea. Jones (dropped candidate) · 3.0 Wilson (public figure) · 3.0
Campaign operations note: Kory Teneycke (campaign manager), Jeff Ballingall (Canada Proud), and Nick Kouvalis (pollster/strategist) are paid campaign operatives. They are not included as endorsers under this document's standard. Their attachment to the campaign is operationally significant but is not an independent public endorsement. · 8 endorsers · blended average rises from 5.5 to 5.93 after removing below-average operatives
Yuri Fulmer
40.0
5.0 / 10
Brodie / OneBC accord · 8.0 Banman (dropped-sitting MLA) · 7.5 Morrison MP · 6.0 Bolin (former BC Con leader · no elected office) · 3.0 Graham (councillor + party VP) · 4.5 Shypitka, Sultan (former MLAs) · 4.0 ea. Hamm (dropped candidate) · 3.0
8 endorsers · revised: Connor Gibson (party staffer, no elected office) and Pamela Martin (party staffer, no elected office) removed — not endorsers of significance under this document's standard · blended average unchanged at 5.0
No documented controversies, ethics issues or legal matters identified in any 2020–2026 public records.
Key finding: Findlay leads the field on weighted total (136.5 / 18 endorsers) with the highest blended quality score (7.58 / 10) and the highest MLA count at 10 (8 Conservative + Kealy + Armstrong). Hartwell (Bulkley Valley-Stikine · Con.) added Apr 27 · Kindy (North Island · Con.) added Apr 23. Milobar second on raw volume (111.0 / 18 endorsers) — Caputo (fed. MP, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo) added Apr 27 · 8 sitting Conservative MLAs and 8 former BC Liberal provincial MLAs/cabinet. Black 82.5 / 13 endorsers — blended 6.8 · Luck (MLA, Fraser-Nicola) added Apr 18. Elliott blended 5.93 / 7 endorsers. Fulmer 5.0 / 8 endorsers — Brodie accord at 8.0 remains his single strongest asset.

Methodology note (Apr 16 revision): Paid campaign operatives (Teneycke, Ballingall, Kouvalis) and party staffers holding no elected office (Gibson, Martin) were removed from this matrix. A paid campaign role is not a public endorsement under this document's standard. Candidate-of-record filing (Adams) and misattributed endorser (Anderson — confirmed Black endorser) were also corrected. Milobar total: prior 97.0 was a subtraction error, corrected to 103.5, subsequently updated to 111.0 after Caputo (Apr 27) (fed. MP) added Apr 27. Bolin (Fulmer) confirmed at 3.0 — no elected office. Changes are noted on each affected card above.
Endorsement standard: publicly endorsed · holds or held elected office, formal party leadership, ran as a candidate in a general election, or is a figure of significant public prominence. Weights reflect one analytical framework. Purpose is to make trade-offs visible — not to declare a winner on endorsements alone. @TheRemanded · Hobby Independent
Candidate position tracker v9 · updated Apr 23
Historical record vs. 2026 campaign position · all positions sourced with dates · Iain Black left elected politics 2011 — historical labels reflect this
All positions sourced from direct quotes with publication dates. No interpretation added. Readers apply their own values. Sources: Peace Arch News · Vancouver Sun · Castanet · The Tyee · Turner Files / Penticton Western News · PressProgress · BC NDP Caucus release · teamyurifulmer.ca · findlay4bc.ca · Wikipedia (Iain Black)
Repeal / end Opposed Supported Mixed / moderate No public record Documented position change
SOGI / DEI — documented position changes
← Scroll to view full table →
Period Milobar Elliott Black Findlay Fulmer
Pre-2024 record
verified quotes		 Supported protective intentCastanet reported he said replacing SOGI with anti-bullying programs wouldn't change its core intention to protect students from bullying. Direct quote: "The core fundamental piece is that there needs to be training modules and resources and support for teachers and faculty to properly protect kids at school from bullying." Sitting BC United MLA.Castanet Kamloops · Oct 18–19, 2024 Endorsed SOGIEndorsed Falcon's response to SOGI critics as reflecting "the reasonable views of parents I talk to every day." Note: source is a BC NDP Caucus press release citing this statement — independently confirmed by Turner Files (Mar 27, 2026) and multiple newspapers.BC NDP Caucus release · Jan 16, 2026 · confirmed Turner Files · Mar 27, 2026 No record foundOut of active politics 2011–2024. No personal SOGI quotes on record. Last held elected office 2011.Wikipedia · news audit Apr 2026 Consistent opponentLong-standing federal social-conservative record. Opposed gender ideology in schools throughout CPC career.Federal Hansard 2019–2021 No prior recordNot in politics pre-2024. No SOGI statements before leadership campaign.X/FB/IG audit · Apr 2026
2026 campaign position Repeal — shifted"There's not a difference… it does need to be repealed." Claims position unchanged; language hardened.Castanet · Apr 1, 2026 Full repeal — position reversed"When I become premier, SOGI will be repealed." Direct reversal from January 2026 endorsement of Falcon's SOGI stance — ten weeks apart. April 24, 2026: "SOGI doesn't belong in classrooms. Activist ideology doesn't belong in classrooms. Shame and guilt don't belong in classrooms."Turner Files · Mar 27, 2026 · X post · @NVanCaroline · April 24, 2026 · x.com/NVanCaroline/status/2047827178444694003 Repeal"SOGI, as it exists today, must be repealed."PressProgress · Apr 14, 2026 Repeal — consistent"My opponents supported SOGI. I will repeal SOGI."Turner Files · Mar 27, 2026 Repeal — consistent"On my very first day of this campaign, I committed to repealing SOGI… I resolutely stand by this commitment."X post · Feb 3, 2026
Consistency rating Clear shift Reversed position No prior record Consistent Consistent from entry
All five candidates have publicly stated positions supporting repeal of SOGI 123 in their 2026 campaigns. Three attending candidates endorsed the position at the April 8 debate · PressProgress · Apr 14, 2026 · campaign materials 2026
Freedom Convoy 2022 — historical record vs. 2026 campaign position
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Period Milobar Elliott Black Findlay Fulmer
Historical record
2022–2024 verified		 CondemnedSitting BC United MLA when legislature voted to condemn. Called Rustad's appearance with Tamara Lich "extremist."The Tyee · Jul 12, 2024 No record foundActive BC United VP. Party formally condemned. Zero direct personal posts found.X/FB/IG audit · Apr 2026 No record foundOut of active politics 2011–2024. Not a member of any party caucus during 2022 events. Zero posts found.Wikipedia · X audit Apr 2026 Supported messageSaid she "roundly condemns" actions of a few but did not feel they represented the majority of protesters or their message. Tweeted support Jan 25, 2022. Met with truckers in Delta Jan 23.Peace Arch News · Feb 4, 2022 No record foundNot in politics 2022. Zero posts found. Freedom Charter signals civil-liberties alignment.X/FB/IG audit · Apr 2026
2026 campaign position DistancedDoes not reference convoy. Moderate electability framing. Criticized by Findlay for prior condemn vote.PressProgress · Apr 14, 2026 ImplicitAttacks BC Liberal legacy including condemn vote. No explicit convoy statements in 2026.Campaign materials 2026 ImplicitCivil liberties framing throughout campaign. No explicit convoy statements. No prior condemn vote on record.Debate transcripts 2026 Central plank"BC Liberals voted to condemn and smear the Freedom Convoy. Liberals are not taking over our Conservative party. Not on my watch."Vancouver Sun · Apr 3, 2026 Indirect alignmentFreedom Charter: medical conscience rights, religious freedom during emergencies. His campaign's Unite the Right Accord partner is Dallas Brodie / OneBC. Brodie's own stated positions include civil liberties alignment with convoy-era issues. No direct Fulmer statement on the convoy found.teamyurifulmer.ca · 2026 · X audit Apr 2026
COVID-19 vaccines and mandates — three distinct categories
Note: Personal vaccination choice · support for vaccine passport / immunization record frameworks · support for government-imposed vaccine mandates as policy — these are three distinct positions not interchangeable.
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Category Milobar Elliott Black Findlay Fulmer
Personal vaccination
own 2021 posts		 No posts foundX search · triple-checked No posts foundX search · triple-checked Publicly vaccinated"No hesitation. #GetTheJab" Apr 19, 2021. "Dose 1 now done." Apr 23, 2021. Personal choice — not a policy statement. Note: sourced via secondary X thread, not primary X account directly.Reported by Marc Nixon via X thread · Apr 13, 2026 (citing Black's X posts) No pro-vaccine postsPosts focused on anti-mandate policy, not personal vaccination.X search · triple-checked No posts foundX search · triple-checked
Vaccine passport / immunization records
own posts or reposts		 No posts found No posts found Reposted supportive contentJul 2021: Reposted Angela Chaisson — "Can we stop calling them vaccine passports, call them immunization records." Note: this is Chaisson's wording, not Black's. A repost is not a stated personal endorsement. Sourced via secondary X thread, not primary X account directly.Reported by Marc Nixon via X thread · Apr 13, 2026 (citing Black's X repost) No posts found No posts found
Government mandate policy
2020–2024 social media		 Supported rolloutPushed for faster COVID vaccine rollout 2020–21 as BC United MLA. No anti-mandate statements found.Public statements 2020–21 No posts foundZero direct posts on mandates found 2020–2024.X search · triple-checked No direct posts foundNo posts explicitly supporting or opposing government mandate policy found 2020–2024. Social media accusations of past mandate support are unverified.X search · triple-checked Multiple anti-mandate postsMar 18, 2022: "It's time to end mandates." Apr 28, 2022: "Federal vaccine mandates are depleting the Canadian Forces… Time to end these mandates."X posts · Mar 18 + Apr 28, 2022 No posts foundX search · triple-checked
2026 campaign position Anti-overreachGovernment overreach framing. No explicit reversal on prior vaccine rollout support.Campaign materials 2026 Personal freedomPersonal choice framing. No specific mandate reversal statements on record.Campaign materials 2026 Stated: never supported mandatesAt April 2026 debate stated he "never supported the mandates." Sits alongside 2021 #GetTheJab posts and passport repost. Reader assessment. Note: debate statement reported via secondary X thread, not official transcript.Reported by Marc Nixon via X thread · Apr 13, 2026 (citing debate clip) Strongly opposedConsistent across both periods. Most documented anti-mandate record of any candidate.findlay4bc.ca · Vancouver Sun Apr 3, 2026 Policy-based oppositionFreedom Charter: "protect conscience and medical rights" — explicitly protects healthcare workers from vaccine mandates.teamyurifulmer.ca · 2026
Medical Assistance in Dying (MAID) added Apr 19
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Period Milobar Elliott Black Findlay Fulmer
Federal voting record
House of Commons · verified votes		 N/A — never an MPNo federal voting record. Served as BC municipal councillor, mayor, and MLA only. N/A — never an MPNo federal voting record. No elected office prior to 2026 leadership race. N/A — never an MPNo federal voting record. Served as BC provincial MLA 2005–2011 only. Opposed certain expansions · supported safeguardsMar 11, 2021: NAY on advance-request MAID before grievous and irremediable condition exists (Vote #72, 43rd Parliament, 2nd Session). Oct 18, 2023: YEA on Bill C-314 restricting certain MAID applications (Vote #423, 44th Parliament, 1st Session). Oct 31, 2024: NAY on Second Report of Special Joint Committee on MAID (Vote #874, 44th Parliament, 1st Session). Jun 2021: As Vice-Chair of Special Joint Committee on MAID, questioned witnesses on palliative care adequacy and safeguards.House of Commons Vote Details #72, #423, #874 · AMAD Committee Evidence meeting #2 · Jun 2021 N/A — never an MPNo federal voting record. No elected office prior to 2026 leadership race.
2026 campaign position No record foundNo X posts, campaign statements, or news mentions of MAID found Jan 1, 2025 – Apr 19, 2026.X keyword search + web/news audit · Apr 2026 No record foundNo X posts, campaign statements, or news mentions of MAID found Jan 1, 2025 – Apr 19, 2026.X keyword search + web/news audit · Apr 2026 Palliative care providers — no forced MAIDApr 14, 2026: "Organizations focused on palliative care should not be forced to provide MAID as a condition of public funding." Referenced the Delta Hospice Society case (loss of Irene Thomas Hospice funding). Committed: "As Premier, I will ensure a system that protects both: patient choice and the integrity of care providers."X post ID 2044163860673052937 · Apr 14, 2026 · iainblack.ca news release No 2026 leadership statement foundFederal parliamentary record documented above. No X posts, campaign statements, or findlay4bc.ca mentions of MAID found in the 2026 leadership race.X keyword search · findlay4bc.ca audit · Apr 19, 2026 Oppose expansion to mental illness — will rejectFeb 24, 2026: "As Premier, I will stop the MAiD expansion. If Ottawa doesn't like it, they can see me in court." Mar 19, 2026: Endorsed stopping expansion; linked active petition on teamyurifulmer.ca. Apr 17, 2026: "I was aghast to learn that Ottawa plans to expand Medical Assistance in Dying to Canadians suffering solely from mental illness… A Fulmer-led BC Conservative government will forcefully reject this MAiD expansion."X post IDs 2026698484108153023 · 2034700573509906585 · 2044933573518721472 · Feb 24 / Mar 19 / Apr 17, 2026 · teamyurifulmer.ca petition
Full field consensus — DRIPA · carbon tax · resource development · gender-affirming care
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Issue Milobar Elliott Black Findlay Fulmer
DRIPA / UNDRIP ✓ Repeal — direct commitment"DRIPA needs to be repealed, and the rule of law must be upheld. British Columbians elect a provincial government to act in the interest of everyone."X post · @PeterMilobar · April 26, 2026 · x.com/PeterMilobar/status/2048511903153144112 ✓ Repeal — direct commitment"DRIPA must be repealed. Not reformed. Not reviewed. Repealed." Also: "I'll repeal DRIPA entirely." Note: all five candidates committed to repeal at the April 24 CSFN debate.X post · @NVanCaroline · April 25, 2026 · x.com/NVanCaroline/status/2048131225525596588 · April 27, 2026 · x.com/NVanCaroline/status/2048906074456256878 ✓ Repeal — Bill 1 · specific mechanisms"DRIPA will be repealed, but EXPERIENCE MATTERS for what comes next." Premier's Plan: Bill 1 named specifically as "An Act to Repeal DRIPA and Section 8.1 of the Interpretation Act" — Day One. 120-day decision deadline for government approvals. 720-day deadline for Indigenous consultation. Private property rights non-negotiable. Prohibit land acknowledgements using language such as "colonizers," "settlers," "unceded," or "stolen land."iainblack.ca Premier's Plan · April 25, 2026 · x.com/iainblackbc/status/2048841084483350914 · x.com/iainblackbc/status/2048184485213286794 ✓ Repeal — direct commitment"DRIPA must be repealed." Consistent 2026 leadership position affirmed at CSFN debate April 24.X post · @KerryLynneFindl · April 24, 2026 · CSFN debate · April 24, 2026 ✓ Repeal + cease land transfersCommitted to repeal DRIPA and announced a future government would "cease the voluntary transfer of land and money to Indigenous communities" so "the playing field to negotiate is level." Freedom Charter affirms DRIPA repeal.CSFN debate · April 24, 2026 · X post · @yuri_fulmer · April 25, 2026 · x.com/yuri_fulmer/status/2048142515102986709
Carbon tax Eliminate Eliminate Eliminate Eliminate Eliminate
Resource development Expand Expand Expand Expand Expand
Gender-affirming care — minors RestrictParental rights. Moderate language. OpposedWin for BC PDF p.12 · winforbc.ca ✓ Restrict — debate commitmentVoted yes at Juno News debate to agreeing with Danielle Smith's Bill 26, which restricts gender-affirming care for minors.Press Progress · April 14, 2026 · Juno News debate April 8, 2026 ✓ Restrict — debate commitmentVoted yes at Juno News debate to agreeing with Danielle Smith's Bill 26, which restricts gender-affirming care for minors.Press Progress · April 14, 2026 · Juno News debate April 8, 2026 ✓ Will ban — specific commitment"A Fulmer-led government will NOT allow children in British Columbia to access puberty blockers or gender-altering surgeries."X post · @yuri_fulmer · April 5, 2026
Firearms — federal buybackProvincial response to federal program Oppose buyback — campaign email"Refuse to use provincial resources for the federal gun buyback. Join with Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba in opposing this misguided program. Stand up for hunters, anglers, and sport shooters. Always protect your right to hunt and fish."Milobar campaign email to members · April 2026 · not publicly available on campaign website or social media as of April 28, 2026 · Calibre Magazine Apr 16, 2026 confirmed no public response at that date Opposed"Targeting law-abiding gun owners while criminals terrorize communities." Petition against federal gun buyback (winforbc.ca/gunbuybackpetition).X post · @NVanCaroline · April 12, 2026 · x.com/NVanCaroline/status/2043345897816535503 · winforbc.ca/gunbuybackpetition Opposed"Focus on REAL crime, not confiscating hunting rifles… crack down on gangs smuggling illegal guns."X post · Feb 10, 2026 · Calibre Magazine Apr 16, 2026 Opposed"PROUD to stand up for law-abiding gun owners and oppose Ottawa's gun grab."X post · Apr 3, 2026 · Calibre Magazine Apr 16, 2026 Opposed"I will oppose the Ottawa gun grab within the province and direct the RCMP not to spend a single cent enforcing confiscation of law-abiding owners' firearms. The priority must be criminals, not law-abiding gun owners." Also affirmed in Calibre Magazine guide and CSFN debate April 24, 2026.X post · @yuri_fulmer · April 16, 2026 · x.com/yuri_fulmer/status/2044922503857127873 · Calibre Magazine · April 16, 2026
MAID — medical assistance in dyingExpansion and access No statement found No statement found Nuanced positionPalliative care organizations should not be forced to offer MAID as a condition of public funding.iainblack.ca · Apr 14, 2026 No statement found Oppose expansionOfficial provincial policy: reject any expansion of MAiD where sole underlying condition is mental illness or addiction.teamyurifulmer.ca
Human Rights TribunalBC Human Rights Tribunal and Commissioner No statement found No statement foundOpposes compelled speech broadly. No specific HRT position on record. EliminateReturn enforcement of human rights to BC Supreme Court. Eliminate HRT and Office of the Human Rights Commissioner.iainblack.ca · Mar 23, 2026 ✓ Oppose — accountability"When unelected bodies start acting like arbiters of acceptable opinion, you don't have accountability, you have a system that chills speech… We need to restore balance. We need to protect free expression." Note: Findlay is a former Canadian Human Rights Tribunal member.X post · @KerryLynneFindl · April 1, 2026 · x.com/KerryLynneFindl/status/2039419430753681889 · Feb 20, 2026 · x.com/KerryLynneFindl/status/2024724807565054240 ReplaceReplace HRT with a new Rights and Liberties Tribunal that holds government accountable.X post · @yuri_fulmer · April 16, 2026 · x.com/yuri_fulmer/status/2044922503857127873 · Calibre Magazine · April 16, 2026
HPOA / Bill 36Health Professions and Occupations Act — in force Apr 1, 2026 ✓ Repeal Bill 36"Bill 36 is big government overreach — plain and simple. On April 1, 2026, the NDP will fundamentally change healthcare in BC." Position is to repeal HPOA. Confirmed in April 2026 leadership interview.Instagram reel · @petermilobar · April 2026 · instagram.com/p/DXnNNZoj3Tn/ · interview: brokentypewriter.ca/p/in-conversation-milobar-on-why-the Repeal"Reversing the NDP's new, big-government Health Professions and Occupations Act." Restore professional independence.Win for BC PDF p.8 · winforbc.ca RepealRepeal Bill 36 to restore independent professional self-regulation for health professionals.iainblack.ca · Mar 5, 2026 Repeal — Day 1"This NDP takeover of our health professions stops with a real Conservative BC Government. I will fully repeal the HPOA on day one."findlay4bc.ca policy · Mar 7, 2026 RepealRepeal HPOA and restore professional self-governance.teamyurifulmer.ca Healthcare
ICBC / auto insuranceNo-fault system and monopoly ✓ Repeal no-fault · restore accountability"No-fault insurance has stripped British Columbians of their right to legal recourse. I support restoring a fair system with accountability at ICBC — and I opposed Bill 21's overreach into the legal profession." Public letter to Trial Lawyers Association of BC and CBA-BC.X post · @PeterMilobar · March 25, 2026 · x.com/PeterMilobar/status/2036897174051840311 End monopoly"Bring choice to auto insurance. Explore options beyond ICBC, keep rates affordable, restore the right of seriously injured victims."Win for BC PDF p.8–9 · winforbc.ca ✓ Restore court rights"Not your fault — but you still lose. The NDP stripped away your right to go to court and handed it to ICBC bureaucrats to decide what your injury is worth. No judge. No jury. No justice. End the NDP's control."X post · @iainblackbc · April 4, 2026 · x.com/iainblackbc/status/2040427195005345866 Repeal no-faultRepeal no-fault framework, restore court rights for injured victims including income loss and non-economic damages. 4-point structured policy.findlay4bc.ca policy · Mar 2, 2026 End monopoly"End the ICBC monopoly — allow competition so drivers have choice and affordability, and restore independent court access for seriously injured accident victims."teamyurifulmer.ca Common Sense Governance
Women's sports & single-sex spacesCompetition fairness · shelters · prisons No statement found Protect"Ensure fairness and safety in women's sports by ensuring biological females are able to compete against other biological females." Protect rights of women and girls to single-sex spaces including shelters and prisons.Win for BC PDF p.12 · winforbc.ca No statement found ProtectCampaign launch pledge to "keep men out of girls' locker rooms." Listed among real conservative solutions alongside cutting taxes and building pipelines.Agassiz Harrison Observer · Jan 30, 2026 Protect"Protect women-only spaces and girls' and women's sport."teamyurifulmer.ca Common Sense Governance
Addiction treatment & safe supplyDecriminalization · safe supply · treatment model Oppose safe supply · treatmentFeb 7, 2025: Highlighted leaked report that safe supply prescription drugs are "finding their hands into criminals and fuelling an underground network of drug trafficking." Apr 2024: Called for ending "reckless and failed decriminalization experiment." Consistently critical of NDP safe supply policy since at least 2024.X posts · Apr 2024 · Feb 7, 2025 · Jun 24, 2025 End safe supply · treatment focusReverse NDP soft-on-drugs approach. Redirect resources from safe supply to treatment and recovery. Empower police under Mental Health Act for public drug use. End "taxpayer-funded drug policies."Win for BC PDF p.10 · winforbc.ca Mental health centre · treatmentRedevelop Riverview lands into a global-standard mental health and addiction centre. Focus on treatment not enforcement of low-level possession.iainblack.ca · Apr 9, 2026 Oppose safe supply · treatment"Decriminalization of hard drugs was a horrible, failed and dangerous experiment. There is nothing safe about so-called safe supply… We need real investment in people with treatment plans." April 26, 2026: "There is nothing compassionate about policies that leave people trapped in addiction... no such thing as 'safe supply'... focus on recovery. Real recovery. That means investing in treatment, in beds, and in pathways that bring people back." Source: X post · @KerryLynneFindl · April 26, 2026 · x.com/KerryLynneFindl/status/2048417968724512967findlay4bc.ca · Apr 2026 · X post ID 1855684765423243469 · Calibre Magazine Apr 16, 2026nvestment in people with more treatment beds."X post · Apr 16, 2026 Treatment-on-demand · end safe supply"Commit to a treatment-on-demand system." End NDP safe supply policies. Legislate compassionate involuntary treatment for adults and youth at risk. Crack down on open drug use near homes and schools.teamyurifulmer.ca Mental Health & Addictions
Housing affordabilitySupply · permitting · development costs Shared priorityNamed as a campaign priority. No candidate-specific sourced commitment with a direct quote located. Shared priorityNamed as a campaign priority. No candidate-specific sourced commitment with a direct quote located. ✓ Fee caps + permitting reformCap/reduce Development Cost Charges and Community Amenity Contributions. Prohibit Metro Vancouver from imposing DCCs or CACs at regional level. Collect DCC/CAC at project completion not upfront. Pre-approved standardized application templates. Restore municipalities as primary zoning authority. Eliminate BC Energy Step Code. Remove Speculation and Vacancy Tax for Canadian taxpayers. Remove short-term rental restrictions outside Metro Vancouver.iainblack.ca housing policy · April 2026 Shared priorityNamed as a campaign priority. No candidate-specific sourced commitment with a direct quote located. Shared priorityNamed as a campaign priority. No candidate-specific sourced commitment with a direct quote located.
Crime and public safetyEnforcement · repeat offenders · street safety Shared priorityNamed as a campaign priority. No candidate-specific sourced commitment with a direct quote located. Shared priorityNamed as a campaign priority. No candidate-specific sourced commitment with a direct quote located. ✓ Premier's Plan — specific mechanisms"Crack down on gangs, extortion, and end the free ride for drug dealers. Add capacity to prosecute criminals, pressure the federal government to deport non-citizen criminals, and end the street disorder in our communities. Invoke the Notwithstanding Clause where necessary to achieve involuntary care for addicts." Dedicated provincial extortion task force with RCMP and Surrey Police Service.iainblack.ca Premier's Plan · April 25, 2026 · x.com/iainblackbc/status/2048184485213286794 Lock up criminals"Lock up criminals." NDP "let crime and chaos spread." No specific enforcement mechanism or sentencing commitment found beyond this framing.findlay4bc.ca campaign launch · Facebook · Apr 18, 2026 Shared priorityNamed as a campaign priority. No candidate-specific sourced commitment with a direct quote located.
HealthcareWait times · professional regulation · delivery Shared priorityNamed as a campaign priority. No candidate-specific sourced commitment with a direct quote located. Shared priorityNamed as a campaign priority. No candidate-specific sourced commitment with a direct quote located. ✓ Repeal Bill 36 + public/privateRepeal Bill 36 to restore independent professional self-regulation. Premier's Plan: "Faster Healthcare — welcome private capital to build faster and better. Private sector builds infrastructure and provides contracted services. Focus taxpayer resources on funding improved healthcare — maintaining public single-payer model in compliance with Canada Health Act." RCMP-style healthcare recruitment model: healthcare immigrants assigned to specific communities. Mandate maternity services at new Cloverdale hospital.iainblack.ca Premier's Plan · April 25, 2026 · x.com/iainblackbc/status/2048184485213286794 · iainblack.ca/news · Mar 23, 2026 Shared priorityNamed as a campaign priority. No candidate-specific sourced commitment with a direct quote located. Shared priorityNamed as a campaign priority. No candidate-specific sourced commitment with a direct quote located.
Fiscal policyDeficit · taxes · spending Shared priorityNamed as a campaign priority. No candidate-specific sourced commitment with a direct quote located. Shared priorityNamed as a campaign priority. No candidate-specific sourced commitment with a direct quote located. ✓ 20% income tax cut — Premier's Plan"20% Income Tax Cut — more money in your pocket, real affordability." Also: eliminate Employer Payroll Tax · roll back regulations to 10% below 2017 · reverse NDP bracket creep · reverse lowering of lowest tax bracket.iainblack.ca Premier's Plan · April 25, 2026 · x.com/iainblackbc/status/2048184485213286794 :1.5;">"Cut taxes." NDP "raised taxes." No candidate-specific tax category or dollar figure found beyond this framing at campaign launch.findlay4bc.ca campaign launch · Facebook · Apr 18, 2026 Shared priorityNamed as a campaign priority. No candidate-specific sourced commitment with a direct quote located.
Note on housing · crime · healthcare · fiscal rows: All five candidates have named these as campaign priorities. The cells above reflect only positions where a specific sourced commitment or direct quote was located against a named primary source with a date. "Shared priority" indicates the topic was addressed at a campaign-priority level in available materials without a candidate-specific policy commitment that meets this document's sourcing standard.
LMIA / Temporary Foreign Workers (TFW) — documented records only added Apr 19
Note: No candidate has issued a 2026 leadership-race-specific policy document or debate statement on LMIA/TFW as of April 19, 2026. Records below reflect federal voting history, lobbying registry entries, and one leadership-period interview. All X keyword searches returned zero additional results on this topic for all five candidates.
← Scroll to view full table →
Record Milobar Elliott Black Findlay Fulmer
Documented record
verified sources with dates		 Lobbying registry — improved access Recorded in BC lobbying registry as having advocated "improving access to temporary foreign workers and the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)" to address labour shortages in key sectors. No 2026 leadership campaign statement found on this topic. BC lobbying registry · Mar 11, 2026 No record found Zero X posts, news interviews, or campaign materials on TFW/LMIA found in the 2026 race or prior 12 months. X keyword search + web/news audit · Apr 2026 No record found Zero X posts, news interviews, or campaign materials on TFW/LMIA found in the 2026 race or prior 12 months. Out of active politics 2011–2024. X keyword search + web/news audit · Apr 2026 Federal record — pathways + union pre-checks May 11, 2022: Voted Yea on House of Commons Motion M-44 (as amended), calling for pathways to permanent residency for TFWs with significant Canadian work experience in sectors with persistent labour shortages. Supported CPC platform plank calling for union LMIA pre-checks to protect Canadian workers before employers access the TFW program. No 2026 leadership-race statement found. House of Commons Vote #85, 44th Parliament, 1st Session · May 11, 2022 · CPC platform 2021–2025 Employer — 8.4% TFW workforce · last resort stated Jan 8, 2026: Stated his restaurant businesses employ 549 people total, of whom 46 are TFWs (8.4%). Fulmer & Co. itself employs one TFW; other businesses employ zero. Direct quote: "Canadians have always had first priority" and TFWs are used "only as a last resort," especially in smaller and rural communities. No separate 2026 leadership campaign policy document on TFW/LMIA found. Western Standard · Jan 8, 2026
BC Human Rights Tribunal
2026 statements only		 No record found No X posts, campaign statements, or news mentions on the BC Human Rights Tribunal found in the 2026 race or prior 12 months. X keyword search + web/news audit · Apr 2026 No record found No X posts, campaign statements, or news mentions on the BC Human Rights Tribunal found in the 2026 race or prior 12 months. X keyword search + web/news audit · Apr 2026 No record found No X posts, campaign statements, or news mentions on the BC Human Rights Tribunal found in the 2026 race or prior 12 months. X keyword search + web/news audit · Apr 2026 BC system "broken" · calls for reform Feb 20, 2026: On the $750,000 penalty against former school trustee Barry Neufeld — "As a lawyer and former Canadian Human Rights Tribunal Judge, I believe deeply in protecting human rights, and I know just how broken the BC Tribunal system has become. Human rights protections must be applied with fairness, proportionality, and above all with respect for freedom of speech." Apr 1, 2026: "When unelected bodies start acting like arbiters of acceptable opinion, you don't have accountability, you have a system that chills speech… We need to restore balance. We need to protect free expression." Note: Findlay is a former Canadian Human Rights Tribunal member (judge). X post IDs 2024724807565054240 (Feb 20, 2026) · 2039419430753681889 (Apr 1, 2026) No record found No X posts, campaign statements, or news mentions on the BC Human Rights Tribunal found in the 2026 race or prior 12 months. X keyword search + web/news audit · Apr 2026
Seniors policyProperty tax · PST changes · long-term care · bracket creep LTC + property tax — criticismCriticised NDP cancellation of 6 long-term care facilities and property tax changes hitting seniors. No specific named reversal commitments located.X post · @PeterMilobar · Feb 22, 2026 · x.com/PeterMilobar/status/2025385404774404342 · Apr 13, 2026 · x.com/PeterMilobar/status/2043795999764676738 No statement found ✓ 4 specific NDP reversalsReverse NDP property tax deferral interest rate (currently 6.45–6.5% compound). Reverse PST on strata fees. Reverse PST on cable TV and landline services. Reverse NDP elimination of inflation adjustment for tax brackets. Restart construction of stalled long-term care homes.iainblack.ca seniors policy · April 2026 No statement found No statement found
Education reformBeyond SOGI — letter grades · standardised testing · parental rights Back to basics — general framing"Education system focused on learning how to succeed in a future job, not ideology." No specific named mechanism beyond general framing.X post · @PeterMilobar · April 5, 2026 · x.com/PeterMilobar/status/2040634607536849097 ✓ Letter grades — direct commitment"After years of NDP policies, students are falling behind. I will end the NDP's far-left activism in the classroom, bring back letter grades and set our kids up for success." Full education plan at winforbc.ca/policies.X post · @NVanCaroline · April 6, 2026 · x.com/NVanCaroline/status/2041271377240740219 · winforbc.ca/policies ✓ 6 specific commitmentsReturn letter grades. Mandatory standardised testing. O Canada daily. Remove mobile phones from classrooms. Protect and expand School Liaison Officer program. Prohibit land acknowledgements using language such as "colonizers," "settlers," "unceded," or "stolen land." Repeal SOGI (addressed separately). Return parental decision-making authority.iainblack.ca education policy · April 2026 · x.com/iainblackbc/status/2048184485213286794 Back to basics — general framing"We need to get back to basics. We need to get back to math, science, and the stuff that actually matters." General framing in SOGI context — no specific mechanism named.X post · @KerryLynneFindl · April 4, 2026 · x.com/KerryLynneFindl/status/2040416401714983075 ✓ Letter grades + Freedom Charter"We're going back to letter grades. A+ will be the best, and F will be a fail… get back to basics." Launched petition. Freedom Charter (April 25, 2026) includes "Parental Rights Secured" and prohibits compelled speech in education.X post · @yuri_fulmer · March 25, 2026 · x.com/yuri_fulmer/status/2036907892079460541 · petition: teamyurifulmer.ca/petition/restore-letter-grades · Freedom Charter: x.com/yuri_fulmer/status/2048119414311313589
Pandemic accountabilityCOVID review · mandate consequences · healthcare worker reinstatement No statement found No statement found ✓ Independent blue-ribbon commissionEstablish an independent, expert-led blue-ribbon commission to conduct a full, objective review of BC's COVID-19 response. Commission to examine what worked and what didn't, effectiveness of mandates and restrictions, where government may have overreached, and social/economic consequences. Findings made fully public with recommendations for future preparedness.iainblack.ca pandemic accountability policy · April 2026 ✓ Day One — restore healthcare workers"The NDP still refuses to bring back the thousands of doctors and nurses they pushed out over the COVID vaccine mandates… When I am Premier, that ends on day one. I will immediately restore full licensure and practising rights to every doctor, nurse, and health care worker who was forced out because of the vaccine mandate."X post · @KerryLynneFindl · April 19, 2026 · x.com/KerryLynneFindl/status/2045888610516467882 No statement found
Autism and disability supportsBC Autism Funding Program · NDP changes effective 2027 NDP cuts — general criticism"I asked the Minister: why put the future of kids like Reggie at risk?" (World Autism Day — referencing NDP autism funding changes reducing support from up to $22,000 to potentially $6,500). No specific commitment to restore funding located.X post · @PeterMilobar · April 3, 2026 · x.com/PeterMilobar/status/2039906512328626443 No statement found ✓ 5 specific commitmentsRestore direct, flexible autism funding without income testing. Fund supports for other disabled children separately. Evidence-based therapies directed by parents. Give autism families a genuine seat at the table in designing programs. Base programs on each child's clinical needs, not administrative convenience. (Context: NDP eliminated Autism Funding Program Feb 2026, effective 2027 — up to $22,000/year cut to potential $6,500 under income-tested system.)iainblack.ca autism policy · April 2026 ✓ Restore direct flexible funding"As your next Premier I am committed to fighting these cuts and restoring direct flexible funding so parents not bureaucrats can choose the supports their children actually need."X post · @KerryLynneFindl · April 21, 2026 · x.com/KerryLynneFindl/status/2046676993631244375 Oppose NDP cuts — general"I completely disagree with the NDP's decision to replace the current autism funding program… Parents shouldn't be forced to choose between paying out of pocket or losing critical supports… Eby isn't keeping that promise but I will!" No specific funding mechanism named.X post · @yuri_fulmer · April 16, 2026 · x.com/yuri_fulmer/status/2044928766410215610
Position sources: Peace Arch News (Feb 4, 2022) · Agassiz Harrison Observer (Jan 30, 2026) · Castanet Kamloops (Oct 18–19, 2024 · Apr 2026) · The Tyee (Jul 12, 2024) · BC NDP Caucus release (Jan 16, 2026, citing Elliott prior statement — confirmed independently Turner Files Mar 27, 2026) · Turner Files / Penticton Western News (Mar 27, 2026) · Vancouver Sun (Apr 3, 2026) · PressProgress (Apr 14, 2026) · teamyurifulmer.ca · findlay4bc.ca (policy pages, Mar 2–9, 2026) · winforbc.ca (Win for BC PDF 18pp, Apr 16, 2026) · iainblack.ca/news (20 policy releases verified Apr 16, 2026) · Calibre Magazine (Apr 16, 2026) · Marc Nixon X thread (Apr 13, 2026, secondary source — cited as reported by Marc Nixon throughout) · X advanced searches 2020–2026 (triple-checked Apr 16, 2026) · Western Standard (Jan 8, 2026 · Fulmer TFW interview) · BC lobbying registry (Mar 11, 2026 · Milobar TFW record) · House of Commons Vote #85 44th Parliament 1st Session (May 11, 2022 · Findlay M-44 vote) · House of Commons Vote Details #72 #423 #874 (Findlay MAID record 2021–2024) · AMAD Committee Evidence meeting #2 Jun 2021 · X post ID 2044163860673052937 (Black MAID Apr 14, 2026) · X post IDs 2026698484108153023 2034700573509906585 2044933573518721472 (Fulmer MAID Feb–Apr 2026) · X post IDs 2024724807565054240 2039419430753681889 (Findlay BC Human Rights Tribunal Feb–Apr 2026) · The Hub interview (Iain Black · housing/healthcare · 2026) · iainblack.ca (Bill 36 repeal commitment · 2026) · findlay4bc.ca campaign launch (Apr 18, 2026 · crime/fiscal statements) · petermilobar.ca (platform overview · 2026)
Iain Black held no elected or party office 2011–2024. No deleted posts or private accounts referenced. Positions presented factually — readers apply their own values.
@TheRemanded · Hobby Independent · BC Conservative Leadership Race 2026
Documented position gaps — no sourced record found
Topics where no specific sourced commitment or 2026 leadership statement was located for the candidate listed · full detail in position tracker · sourced to Elite Triple Fact-Check Apr 28 / May 3, 2026
The entries below reflect the absence of a located primary source — not a statement that the candidate has no position. Candidates may hold positions that have not been expressed publicly or that were not located in available records as of April 19, 2026. Full sourcing and search methodology in the position tracker section above.
← Scroll to view full table →
Topic Milobar Elliott Black Findlay Fulmer
MAID
2026 leadership statement		 No record found No record found Apr 14, 2026 ✓ Federal voting record3 HoC votes documented (2021–2024) · committee Vice-Chair 2021 · no 2026 leadership statement found Multiple 2026 ✓
LMIA / TFW
2026 leadership statement		 2026 lobbying recordBC lobbying registry Mar 11, 2026 — advocated improved TFW access · no 2026 leadership campaign statement found No record found No record found Federal record only 2026 employer record549 employees · 46 TFWs (8.4%) · "last resort" stated · Western Standard Jan 8, 2026 · no 2026 policy statement found
BC Human Rights Tribunal
2026 leadership statement		 Legislative vote recordVoted Yea on first reading of Human Rights Code Repeal Act (Armstrong bill) · BC Legislature Feb 26, 2026 · Defeated 50–37 · Milobar stated vote was "standard legislative courtesy" and he had not read the bill · Coast Mountain News Mar 3, 2026 · No 2026 leadership campaign statement on this topic found No record found Apr 8, 2026 ✓"Shut down the Human Rights Tribunal" and eliminate the Office of the Human Rights Commissioner. · Juno News debate · Apr 8, 2026 · Press Progress · April 14, 2026 Feb + Apr 2026 ✓ No record found
Housing affordability
specific sourced commitment		 General framing only General framing only Fee caps · permitting ✓ General framing only General framing only
Healthcare
specific sourced commitment		 General framing only General framing only Repeal Bill 36 ✓ General framing only General framing only
Fiscal policy
specific sourced commitment		 General framing only General framing only General framing only Direct quote · general framing"Cut taxes" — findlay4bc.ca · Apr 18, 2026. No specific tax category, rate, or mechanism named. General framing only
Crime and public safety
specific sourced commitment		 General framing only General framing only General framing only Direct quote · general framing"Lock up criminals" — findlay4bc.ca · Apr 18, 2026. No specific enforcement mechanism, sentencing change, or legislation named. General framing only
Green ✓ = specific named 2026 leadership campaign commitment — names a law, mechanism, program, or specific policy action — with primary source and date · Grey "direct quote · general framing" = sourced direct quote found but slogan or priority-level only — no specific named policy action · Grey "general framing only" or "no record found" = no sourced statement meeting the specificity standard located in any context · Amber = verified prior or documented record (federal vote, lobbying registry, employer data, committee work) — real record evidencing a position or action taken · no 2026 leadership campaign statement located · All entries based on primary source searches as of April 23, 2026
Risk & scenario matrix
Critical — Membership grew 4.7× since the only available pollThe Conservative Party of BC has confirmed 42,000 members as of Apr 21, 2026. The Mainstreet poll (Mar 19–22) captured ~2,578 respondents — approximately 6% of the confirmed 42,000-member voting universe. The preferences of the remaining ~94% are entirely unsampled. No poll of the full 42,000-member electorate exists. This is the dominant structural uncertainty in the race and outweighs any single endorsement or debate performance as a swing variable.
Closed — Rustad endorsement · no public endorsement declaredMembership cutoff closed April 18 at 5:00 PM PT. John Rustad has not declared a public endorsement for any candidate as of May 3, 2026. X audit confirmed no announcement as of April 18. This variable is closed — no endorsement will reach members before ballots are distributed from May 9 (verification deadline May 20).
Notable — Findlay underrepresented in pollingFindlay records 8.1% first-choice in the poll. Her endorsement metrics as of May 3 are 10 total MLA endorsers (8 Conservative plus Kealy and Armstrong as independents, Hartwell confirmed April 27), the highest blended endorsement quality score at 7.72, and a 5/5 policy consistency rating in the scorecard tied with Fulmer. The gap between her institutional metrics and her first-choice polling figure is the largest of any candidate in the race.
Notable — Black: second-choice support second-highest in field, strongest debate performanceMainstreet member poll records Black's second-choice support at 9.1%, second only to Milobar at 9.8% and ahead of Elliott at 7.8% and Findlay at 6.0%. At the April 8 Juno News debate, the only candidate forum before official party-sanctioned debates, Black was assessed the strongest performer by multiple independent outlets. Both Elliott and Milobar did not attend. His endorsement bench includes two former federal cabinet ministers (Moore, Fast), a former interim BC Conservative party leader and current MP (Anderson), a former Senator (St. Germain), a former MP (Watts), and a former BC provincial cabinet minister (de Jong), with no BC Liberal or BC United association on record. His first-choice polling figure is 8.4%. In the Mainstreet IRV simulation, a path to a result requires first-ballot survival followed by transfer accumulation from eliminated candidates. The 9.1% second-choice figure is the available data point for evaluating that scenario.
Context — Fulmer: first-choice base smallest in field, transfer flows unmodelledFulmer records 5.4% first-choice support in the Mainstreet member poll, the lowest of the five remaining candidates. The Mainstreet IRV simulation projects a Milobar-Elliott final ballot. His transfer flows are not modelled in that simulation. The poll does not record where his supporters place second and third choices. Party membership has grown from approximately 9,000 at the time of the poll to a confirmed 42,000 as of April 21, 2026. His support base within the current membership is unsampled alongside all other candidates. Note: Fulmer's campaign stated 15,417 memberships signed since the January 7 campaign launch — this figure is sourced to his campaign only and has not been independently confirmed by the Conservative Party of BC as of April 23, 2026.
Notable — Undecided bloc (31.6%)The largest share of any category in the Mainstreet member poll. Membership cutoff closed April 18 at 5:00 PM PT. How the undecided bloc voted is unsampled — the poll predates the cutoff.
Context — Elliott's premier-tier endorsementsCampbell and Kenney bring national profile. Elliott's BC Liberal and BC United associations are documented in the position tracker. How Findlay and Fulmer supporters rank second and third choices is not captured in available polling. Note: a separate Mainstreet general population survey (Apr 9-13, n=1,275 BC adults, not a member poll) recorded OneBC at up to 15% support under some leadership scenarios — a post-election seat-split risk variable not captured in the member poll.
Context — April 8 debate absenceElliott and Milobar skipped the Juno News debate. The story received attention on X, particularly around venue logistics.
Completed — April 24 CSFN debate (party-sanctioned)All-candidates forum · JW Marriott Parq Vancouver · Canada Strong and Free Network · Moderators: Tristin Hopper (National Post) · Kate Harrison (CSFN Board) · All five candidates attended. Notable exchanges: Elliott vs Fulmer on TFW/A&W businesses, DEI/land acknowledgements, and Liberal ties. Elliott described social-conservative views as "abhorrent" on stage — clipped and posted by Fulmer. Elliott attacked Findlay over caucus vote on genocidal state language. Milobar and Black did not engage in direct on-stage attacks naming opponents. Full debate: youtube.com/watch?v=fMb6P2wldR0 · 1 hr 25 min · 23,500+ views. Source: CSFN YouTube · April 25, 2026 · X clip searches April 24–26, 2026.
Global News debate — May 9, 2026 added May 9
Debate details
Broadcaster: Global BC
Moderator: Ben O'Hara-Byrne (legislative reporter, Global BC)
Date / time: May 9, 2026 · 4:30–6:00 PM PDT · 90 minutes · commercial-free
Candidates: All five (Black · Elliott · Findlay · Fulmer · Milobar)
Significance: Final televised debate before May 30 result. Aired same day ballots distributed.
YouTube live chat analysis methodology note
This is YouTube live chat, not a poll. Audience is self-selected, online-active, and skews toward engaged partisans. No conclusions about member voting intention can be drawn. Each handle counted once regardless of post frequency. Three handles flagged as coordinated (5+ near-identical posts) and reported separately. 71 unique handles identified · 816 total comments captured · ~850 viewers reported in chat.
71
unique handles
816
total comments
3
coordinated handles flagged
~850
viewers (self-reported in chat)
Unique handles by preference — combined sources
Live chat 71 handles + comments 22 handles (21 new) · *% of expressed-preference only (n=61)
KLF / Findlay 32 54%* Fulmer / OneBC 11 18%* Black 7 11%* Elliott 6 10%* Milobar 5 8%* non-candidate-preference handles Mixed / unclear ~25 Anti-est / process 8 Disengaged 6 Opposition/NDP 2 unique handles · 1 per account * % of expressed-pref handles only (n=61)
Coordination flags: @chrsmlln4700 (KLF · 34 posts) · @fitness_md100 (KLF · 18 posts) · @megloops (Milobar · 18 posts)
Narrative themes — 20 identified · volume only
Unique handles per theme · no truth assessment · sorted by volume
Liberal label — Elliott 15
DRIPA repeal — dominant policy 11
KLF experience praised 9
Liberal label — Milobar 8
KLF won the debate 8
Electability / beat the NDP 7
Liberal label — Black 6
KLF age/health concerns 6
Milobar — sitting MLA argument 5
Black attacking KLF (diminishes him) 5
Fulmer — OneBC/Dallas concerns 5
Milobar won't fight SOGI/DRIPA 4
Elliott won debate (post-debate) 4
Fulmer snitch line concerns 4
Black — carbon tax (disputed) 4
Black — outdated experience 4
IRV / voting mechanics 3
Land acknowledgement (asked) 3
Milobar FN conflict of interest 3
Fulmer — new voter conversion 3
"Liberal" label applied across three candidates combined: ~29 handle-mentions. DRIPA repeal is the dominant policy theme (11 handles) — every candidate position on it was scrutinised. Milobar faces a unique two-front challenge: "too liberal" AND "won't fight hard enough on values." Volume only — no truth assessment on any claim.
COORDINATION FLAGS
@chrsmlln4700 · KLF · 34 posts near-identical  ·  @fitness_md100 · KLF · 18 posts  ·  @megloops · Milobar · 18 posts advocacy
Sources: YouTube live chat (during broadcast · 71 handles · 816 comments) + video comments (post-debate · 22 handles, 21 new). Self-selected audience, not a poll. 1 handle = 1 count. Combined expressed-preference handles: n=61.
2024 BC Election violations 2024 BC ELECTION VIOLATIONS
added May 3
On April 7, 2026, Elections BC issued its determination in EBC File 15110-25/2024-002 against the BC United Party. The case is directly relevant to this leadership race: the campaign manager named in the determination as having organized the campaign and who did not reply to Elections BC investigators was Mark Werner — who served as Peter Milobar's campaign manager from the start of this race until April 12, 2026, five days after the determination letter was issued. Werner's departure was reported by the Globe & Mail. No individuals were named, charged, or penalized in the determination itself; Werner's role became publicly known through Sovereign North's disclosure to Elections BC and subsequent media reporting. All data below sourced directly from Elections BC determination letters and enforcement notices — public record.
$4,500
fine actually levied
of $20,000 admin. max
$100K+
max — all 6 provisions
incl. criminal liability
6 yrs
max imprisonment
across 4 criminal provisions (none applied)
4 of 4
criminal provisions
left unaddressed (0 applied)
0
individuals named
charged or penalized
Six applicable provisions — available vs applied
Provision What it covers Max fine Max prison Applied
s. 234.1(a) False criminal accusations against a candidate $20,000 — ✓ $4,500
s. 234.1(b) False statements about group / association membership $20,000 — ✗ Not applied
s. 234.5 / s. 266.2 Falsely impersonating another political party — criminal $20,000 2 years ✗ Not applied
s. 231 / s. 264(1)(b) Failure to identify advertising sponsor — criminal $10,000 1 year ✗ Not applied
s. 230 / s. 264(1)(a) Hidden sponsorship through third party — criminal $10,000 1 year ✗ Not applied
s. 266.1 Individual liability — those who wrote and approved false content — criminal $20,000 2 years ✗ Not applied
Total maximum available $100,000+ 6 years Applied: $4,500 · 0 individuals
Individual liability under s. 266.1 applies per individual — the campaign manager and deputy campaign manager are both identified by role in EBC's determination. Maximum total is therefore higher depending on how many individuals are counted. Source: EBC File 15110-25/2024-002 · April 7, 2026 · BC Election Act [RSBC 1996] Chapter 106
What Elections BC confirmed in its own determination letter — April 7, 2026
1. False statements transmitted
False criminal accusations against Teresa Wat — confirmed entirely false by signed sworn statement provided to EBC
2. Intention to affect election results
Explicitly confirmed as a finding of fact in the determination letter — not inferred
3. "Reckless disregard" — EBC's exact words
The legal standard for intent. Not one other case in the 26-case dataset uses this language.
4. Impersonation of a rival party
Website posed as genuine Conservative grassroots dissent — secretly commissioned and funded by BC United through Sovereign North Strategies Inc.
5. Campaign manager did not reply to EBC
EBC attempted contact through multiple methods. Non-cooperation is noted explicitly in the determination letter.
6. No accuracy verification — ever
EBC confirmed the campaign manager approved the advertising without instructing anyone to verify the accuracy of the statements.
The penalty that doesn't hold up — three cases side by side
All figures sourced directly from EBC enforcement notices · no editorial inference
Case 1 — David Splett · EBC 2024-072
22,113 letters sent without authorization statement
False contentNone
Deliberate intentNone confirmed
Spend$6,876
Penalty
$250
2.5% of max
Case 2 — BC NDP (party) · EBC 2024-076
8,065 bulk texts without authorization statement
Initiated byPublic complaint Oct 6, 2024
NDP's own description"Technical in nature"
Findings releasedMar 30, 2026 — 17 months later
Penalty
$200
2.0% of max
Case 3 — BC United · EBC 2024-002
Covert website + mailout — confirmed false criminal accusations
Intent confirmed by EBC"Reckless disregard"
Impersonated rival partyYes — via Sovereign North
Administrative provision applieds. 234.1(a) — 1 of 2
Criminal provisions applied0 of 4
Campaign mgr replied to EBCDid not reply
Penalty
$4,500
22.5% of $20,000 admin. max
The number that makes it concrete
David Splett spent $6,876 printing letters that forgot an authorization footer — fined $250. The BC NDP violation was complaint-initiated (October 6, 2024), the party called it "technical," asked for leniency, and was fined $200 — with findings released 17 months later. BC United deliberately created false criminal accusations, impersonated a rival party, concealed its sponsorship, and its campaign manager refused to respond to investigators — and paid $4,500. Less than Splett's printing bill. Elections BC's own letter states this conduct "can undermine public confidence in our democratic institutions and the security of our elections" — then applied 22.5% of the available administrative maximum. Five criminal provisions — including two carrying potential imprisonment — went entirely unaddressed. No individuals were named, charged, or penalized in the determination itself.
All 26 Elections BC enforcement cases — penalty as % of maximum available
Sorted by penalty percentage · BC United is the only case with EBC-confirmed deliberate intent · BC NDP case initiated by public complaint Oct 6, 2024
Deliberate — EBC confirmed intent Inadvertent / administrative Technical / procedural
22.5%
BC United % of max · $4,500 of $20,000
7.1%
average — all other 25 cases
25 of 26
cases with no deliberate intent
$100K+ / 6yr
max available · applied: $4,500 · 0 days · 0 individuals
Sources: Elections BC Determination Letter EBC File 15110-25/2024-002 (April 7, 2026) · Elections BC Enforcement Notices — all 25 comparison cases (2024–2026) · Mark Werner's role as Milobar campaign manager and April 12 departure: Globe & Mail reporting, also reflected in BC Conservative Party leadership race coverage · Werner's role in the BC United determination: named in EBC's letter as having organized the campaign and having not replied to EBC; his name became publicly known through Sovereign North's disclosure to EBC and subsequent media reporting · "Technical in nature" is the NDP's own characterization from their March 24, 2026 response to the investigator's report · Individual liability under s. 266.1 applies per individual · All intent characterizations sourced from EBC's own language · @TheRemanded · Hobby Independent
YouTube chat + comments analysis added May 9
Frequently asked questions
Factual answers only · sourced from official rules, Elections BC records, and published electoral data · no inference or prediction
What happens if no candidate reaches 50% of allocated points on the first count?
The candidate who received the fewest points on the first province-wide count is eliminated. That candidate's first-preference votes are redistributed among the remaining candidates according to the second preferences indicated on those ballots. The recount proceeds using the same riding-weighted point system. This process repeats — eliminating the lowest-polling remaining candidate each round and redistributing their votes — until one candidate crosses 50% of the points allocated on any province-wide count. That candidate is declared the leader. With five candidates, a maximum of four rounds is possible.
Source: Rules s.7.7(c)(d)(f)
Can I still join the BC Conservative Party and vote in this race?
No. The membership deadline was April 18, 2026 at 5:00 PM PT. That cutoff has passed. New memberships purchased after that date are not eligible to vote in this leadership race. Ballots will be distributed to members in good standing no later than May 9, 2026.
Source: Rules s.1.4(q) · s.7.2
Is the vote secret?
Yes. The Leadership Vote is conducted on a one member, one vote preferential secret ballot system per the official Rules. Members must not allow another person to use their voting credentials or vote in their place. The Returning Officer's decisions with respect to voter eligibility are final and not subject to review.
Source: Rules s.7.1 · s.7.9 · s.8.3
How does this leadership race relate to the next BC provincial election?
The winner of this race becomes the permanent leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia, which currently holds 38 seats in the Legislative Assembly and forms the Official Opposition. The next BC provincial general election must take place on or before October 18, 2028, the fixed election date under BC's fixed election calendar. The leader elected May 30 will lead the party into that election. All candidates who entered this race signed a written undertaking to publicly campaign for the party in the first provincial general election that occurs after the leadership vote.
Source: Rules s.11.1(b) · BC Election Act fixed election provisions · Conservative Party of BC caucus standing as of Apr 23, 2026
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