BC Conservative
Leadership Race 2026

Race context since the poll closed. The Mainstreet poll closed March 22. In the weeks between that date and April 17, the following sourced events occurred. Elections BC issued a formal determination on April 8 confirming BC United commissioned the FireJohnRustad.ca operation targeting former leader John Rustad; Mark Werner was identified by role as organizer on BC United's behalf. Werner had been serving as Milobar's campaign manager and stepped back April 12. Rustad stated publicly the operation may have suppressed voter turnout and cost Conservatives the 2024 election. Surrey-Guildford, the riding that secured the NDP's one-seat majority, was decided by 22 votes. Three Elliott riding captains resigned publicly April 9-13. Findlay's campaign manager resigned March 25. Party membership grew from approximately 9,000 at poll date to a confirmed 42,000 as of April 21, 2026. Elliott and Milobar were both absent from the April 8 Juno News debate. All five remaining candidates addressed the snap election question publicly the week of April 8-13. The DRIPA bill had been designated a confidence vote, raising the prospect that a government defeat could force a provincial election before the Conservative leadership concluded on May 30. The DRIPA (Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act) confidence motion was confirmed then deferred, with Minister Farnworth stating April 13 it would not proceed that week and was no longer a confidence vote. Armstrong endorsed Findlay on April 16. Membership cutoff closed April 18 at 5:00 PM PT. Final membership total confirmed at 42,000 as of April 21, 2026.

Institutional and digital signals. On endorsement metrics as of April 19, Milobar holds the highest raw endorsement volume in the race at 103.5 across 17 endorsers, anchored by 8 sitting Conservative MLAs and 8 former BC Liberal provincial MLAs and cabinet ministers. Black added Tony Luck (MLA, Fraser-Nicola) on April 18, bringing his total to 68.0 across 10 endorsers and his sitting MLA count to 4. Findlay added Deborah Grey (first Reform Party MP ever elected, first woman to serve as Leader of the Opposition) on March 17, bringing her total to 98.5 across 13 endorsers — the highest blended quality score in the race at 7.58. Elliott holds 3 sitting Conservative MLA endorsements alongside former premiers Campbell (BC, 2001-2011) and Kenney (Alberta, 2019-2022), with a blended endorsement quality score of 5.93 across 7 endorsers. In the @TheRemanded 30-day Google Trends analysis (Mar 16–Apr 14, 2026, BC geography, 11 CSV exports averaged), Elliott recorded the highest BC public search interest at a peak index of 75 and led consistently across the period. Fulmer recorded a peak of 47 with late upward momentum from March 31. Milobar recorded a peak of 40 driven by the April 12 campaign manager controversy. Google Trends measures general public web search interest and does not measure BC Conservative party members specifically.

The only available member poll (Mainstreet, Mar 19-22, commissioned by the Milobar campaign, n=2,578) captured approximately 6% of the confirmed 42,000-member voting universe. Within that sample, Milobar holds a narrow projected IRV advantage (50.5% vs 49.5%) on the strength of the highest second-choice flows at 9.8% and the leading electability score at 30.6% vs 26.0%. Elliott leads first-choice at 21.2% vs Milobar's 20.8%. The IRV margin sits within polling error.

Findlay records 8.1% first-choice in the poll. Her endorsement metrics as of April 19 are 8 total MLA endorsers, 13 total endorsers, the highest blended endorsement quality score at 7.58, and a 5/5 policy consistency rating in the scorecard, tied with Fulmer.

Black records 8.4% first-choice and 9.1% second-choice in the poll. His April 8 debate performance was assessed the strongest of the three attending candidates by multiple independent outlets. In the Mainstreet IRV simulation, a path to a result requires first-ballot survival and transfer accumulation. The 9.1% second-choice figure is the available data point for evaluating that scenario.

Fulmer records 5.4% first-choice. The Mainstreet IRV simulation projects his early elimination with his transfer flows unmodelled. Where his supporters place second and third choices is not captured in available data.

The preferences of approximately 39,422 members beyond the poll sample are unsampled across all five candidates. The April 24 CSFN debate (party-sanctioned, all five candidates) is the last named variable before ballots mail May 9. Rustad has not declared an endorsement as of April 19, 2026. The membership cutoff has closed.